An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

新疆昭苏黄土剖面色度变化特征及古气候意义

对受西风影响的伊犁盆地南缘的昭苏波马剖面进行色度指标分析后发现,在黄土堆积期间,亮度L^*在很大程度上受控于颜色分量a^*、b^*,同有机质含量关系密切。在S_* 中亮度L^* 与碳酸钙有较好的相关性,而在L_*中相关性极低。红度a^*受赤铁矿含量的影响最大,其较好的 正相关关系可以很好地反映气候变干的过程。而黄度b^*与针铁矿相关性较差,易受到多方面因 素的影响,对气候转变的敏感性不高。     

预腐蚀LY12CZ铝合金的疲劳寿命预测模型

目的研究铝合金预腐蚀疲劳的寿命评估模型。方法利用损伤力学模型,建立预腐蚀构件疲劳寿命预测模型,并利用LY12CZ铝合金进行预腐蚀疲劳的验证性实验。结果利用损伤力学建立的模型所得到的预腐蚀铝合金试件的疲劳寿命与实验结果吻合程度良好。结论基于损伤力学的铝合金预腐蚀疲劳寿命预测模型合理有效。     

EM菌处理垃圾渗滤液的微生物生态学及机理分析研究

通过DNA提取,PCR扩增和DGGE分离,用BLAST程序进行相似性比较分析体系中微生物群落多样性。所有序列与数据库中16S rDNA序列的相似性在94%~100%之间。从整个挂膜过程考虑,挂膜时间应在8天左右。渗滤液中污染物的去除与投加EM有很大的关系,但是渗滤液中原始菌种的贡献同样不可忽视。投加EM菌剂促进了渗滤液中群落结构演替和功能优化,并最终通过EM菌剂和渗滤液中原始菌群的共同作用实现渗滤液处理系统效能提高和完善。     

Comparison of quartz sand, anthracite, shale and biological ceramsite for adsorptive removal of phosphorus from aqueous solution

The choice of substrates with high phosphorus adsorption capacity is vital for sustainable phosphorus removal from waste water in constructed wetlands. In this study, four substrates were used： quartz sand, anthracite, shale and biological ceramsite. These substrate samples were characterized by X- ray diffractometry and scanning electron microscopy studies for their mineral components （chemical components） and surface characteristics. The dynamic experimental results revealed the following ranking order for total phosphorus （TP） removal efficiency： anthracite 〉 biological ceramsite 〉 shale 〉 quartz sand. The adsorptive removal capacities for TP using anthracite, biological ceramsite, shale and quartz sand were 85.87, 81.44, 59.65, and 55.98 mg/kg, respectively. Phosphorus desorption was also studied to analyze the substrates＇ adsorption efficiency in wastewater treatment as well as the substrates＇ ability to be reused for treatment. It was noted that the removal performance for the different forms of phosphorus was dependent on the nature of the substrate and the adsorption mechanism. A comparative analysis showed that the removal of particulate phosphorus was much easier using shale. Whereas anthracite had the highest soluble reactive phosphorus （SRP） adsorptive capacity, biological ceramsite had the highest dissolved organic phosphorus （DOP） removal capacity. Phosphorus removal by shale and biological ceramsite was mainly through chemical adsorption, precipitation or biological adsorption. On the other hand, phosphorus removal through physical adsorption （electrostatic attraction or ion exchange） was dominant in anthracite and quartz sand.     

静置/好氧/缺氧序批式反应器（SBR）脱氮除磷效果研究

以静置段代替传统厌氧段,采用后置缺氧方式,考察了静置/好氧/缺氧序批式反应器(SBR)(R1)的生物脱氮除磷(BNR)性能,并与传统厌氧/好氧/缺氧序批式反应器(SBR)(R2)进行对比.两反应器进水乙酸钠、氨氮(NH+4-N)及磷酸盐(PO3-4-P)浓度均分别为350 mg·L-1(以COD计)、40 mg·L-1及12 mg·L-1,水力停留时间(HRT)为12 h.研究结果表明,R1长期运行中磷的去除率与R2相当,分别为92.4%和92.1%,而总氮(TN)去除率则较R2高,分别为83.5%和77.0%.R1静置段省去搅拌但仍能起到厌氧段的作用,为好氧快速摄磷奠定了基础,同时R1缺氧段发生反硝化摄磷,使出水磷降至0.91 mg·L-1.好氧段内R1发生了同步硝化-反硝化(SND),贡献了18.0%的TN去除量,R2也存在SND,但脱氮贡献率较少,仅为9.8%.R1和R2后置缺氧反硝化均以糖原驱动,反硝化速率分别为0.98、0.84 mg·g-1·h-1(以每g VSS产生的N(mg)计),出水TN分别为6.62、9.21 mg·L-1.研究表明,静置段代替传统厌氧段后,可获得更好的脱氮效果,且工艺更为简化.     

胞外聚合物磷酸盐形态对生物除磷过程的影响研究

以不同DO条件下污泥龄(SRT)分别为10 d和30 d的两组实验室A/O-SBR反应器活性污泥为研究对象,探讨了胞外聚合物(EPS)磷酸盐形态对生物除磷过程的影响.结果表明,污泥絮体中的磷主要分布于EPS中,PO3-4-P和聚磷酸盐(Poly-P,包括低分子量聚磷酸盐LMW PolyP和高分子量聚磷酸盐HMW Poly-P)是EPS磷的主要形态;EPS对生物除磷的影响明显大于细菌细胞,EPS磷的厌氧降低量和好氧升高量为胞内磷变化量的2.8~6.4倍.EPS中的LMW Poly-P和HMW Poly-P含量均表现厌氧降低和好氧升高的变化规律;对于相同SRT的污泥,中DO(2.5~3.5 mg·L-1)条件较低DO(0.7~1.0 mg·L-1)条件下EPS的LMW Poly-P和HMW Poly-P有更大的厌氧降低量和好氧升高量,对应着更明显的生物除磷过程,说明EPS不仅是生物除磷过程的中转站,而且参与了生物聚磷过程.     

四溴双酚A在污水脱氮除磷过程中迁移转化试验研究

四溴双酚A(TBBPA)是一种使用广泛的阻燃剂,其扩散到环境介质中,会对生态和人体健康构成威胁,以往研究较少关注TBBPA在脱氮除磷工艺中的迁移转化.采用实验室SBR脱氮除磷反应器,研究了TBBPA在工艺长期运行过程中的去除、在典型周期过程中的变化、在硝化和反硝化过程中的去除.TBBPA在工艺长期运行过程中的去除率为48.4%,其中生物去除率为44.4%,吸附去除率为4.0%.在典型周期中TBBPA浓度受pH影响很大.TBBPA在硝化过程的去除主要是生物作用,而在反硝化过程的去除主要是吸附作用.     

Shewanella oneidensis MR-1对硫化汞的生物利用性研究

在实验室模拟条件下,研究了铁还原菌奥奈达希瓦式菌Shewanella oneidensis MR-1对固态硫化汞的生物溶解、生物甲基化作用及其影响因素.结果表明,铁还原菌S.oneidensis MR-1在含硫培养基中生长良好,低浓度硫素能够促进其生长,高浓度时细菌生长则受到抑制,这种抑制主要表现在菌株生长曲线迟缓期的延长;铁还原菌S.oneidensis MR-1能够利用固态硫化汞,促进其溶解并迅速进行汞甲基化;在S.oneidensis MR-1的耐硫化物范围内,菌株对硫化汞的生物溶解作用随着硫化钠浓度的增大而增强,但生物甲基化作用只在低浓度硫化钠时受到促进,硫化钠浓度过高时则会受到抑制;此外,弱酸性环境比酸性及中碱性的环境更有利于S.oneidensis MR-1对硫化汞的生物溶解及甲基化.     

底栖动物在水质评价中应用的中文文献统计和分析研究

底栖动物长期生活在水体底部,水质的变化会直接影响到它们的生长和繁殖,因此底栖动物可以准确的反映水体的质量.利用底栖动物对水质进行生物评价,在国内已较多采用,并取得了一定的成果.在收集、整理了126篇底栖动物在水质评价中的应用的相关中文文献的基础上,统计出了这些文献的年度发表量及在各期刊的分布情况,其中核心期刊占有较大的比例.此外,还统计了文献的研究机构,主要是以高校为主体,以及文献所用的评价水质的方法,共计14种.